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November 2015 Trends Tracker

Trends Tracker

Companies Covered: AAPL, ADDYY, AMZN, CMG, COH, DISH, FB, FIT, GME, GOOG/GOOGL, IHRT, KATE, KORS, MCD, MSFT, NFLX, NKE, P, PNRA, QSR, SCTY, SKX, TWTR, TWX, TYO:6758, TYO:7936, UA, VZ, WEN, YUM


Click here to download the report (.pdf)

 

Summary of Findings

  • Skechers USA Inc.’s (SKX) growth remains impressive. Expected purchases of Skechers in the next six months rose 18.3% compared with last quarter, second only to Adidas AG’s (ADDYY) 20.2% increase. Both brands are gaining traction in all age groups. 18- to 44-year-olds prefer Adidas to Skechers, while respondents 45 and older prefer Skechers. Nike Inc. (NKE) remains the most sought-after brand, with expected shoe purchases up 15.1%.
  • McDonald Corp.’s (MCD) image continues to improve one month after its nationwide all-day breakfast rollout. Nearly 50% of all respondents ate at a McDonald’s in the past month. Also, the number of respondents eating at McDonald’s rose 12.4% quarter to quarter, and 18- to 29-year-olds now are the most likely to have visited the chain. Respondents ordering from the all-day breakfast menu at a non-breakfast time and who plan to do so daily doubled in number compared with last month. Other traditional fast-food/quick-serve restaurants such as Wendy’s Co. (WEN), Restaurant Brands International Inc.’s (QSR) Burger King and Yum! Brands Inc.’s (YUM) Taco Bell all saw gains quarter to quarter, while healthier options Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) and Doctor’s Associates Inc.’s Subway have lost some momentum.
  • Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) Apple Watch sales are climbing rapidly, though Fitbit Inc. (FIT) maintains its edge in terms of consumer intent to purchase. Respondents increased their purchases of Apple Watches 38.5%, or 0.5 percentage points, quarter to quarter, while their purchases of Fitbit grew only 7.6%, also 0.5 percentage points. 7.1% of respondents are very or extremely likely to purchase a Fitbit in the next three months, compared with 5.4% for Apple Watch. Likewise, 33.6% are likely to purchase a Fitbit in the next three months compared with 22.6% for Apple Watch. Respondents who already own a Fitbit outnumber those with an Apple Watch 4:1.
  • More respondents use Apple Music (13.9%) than the free iTunes Radio service (10.8%), and the former is stealing 18- to 29-year-old listeners from Pandora Media Inc.’s (P) free service and Spotify’s premium option, for which responses fell 4.7% compared with six months ago. Google Inc.’s (GOOG/GOOGL) Google Play gained the most users, growing 103.2%.
  • Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. (KORS) is gaining on Coach Inc. (COH) in the $200 to $700 handbag market. Respondents still consider Coach the trendiest brand in this price range. However, Kors has seen a 16.9% increase compared with six months ago in the number of respondents deeming it the trendiest, while Coach grew 7.3%. Likewise, Coach is most likely to be respondents’ next purchase, but intent to purchase for Kors grew 78.3% compared with six months ago, more than double Coach’s 36.1% increase. Coach experienced increased interest among 18- to 29-year-olds.

 

Introduction

Welcome to Blueshift Research’s 17th edition of the Trends Tracker in conjunction with Burnham Securities. This monthly research survey tracks the most pressing topics affecting U.S. consumers as well as business and investment theses. We monitor trends to see how respondents’ opinions evolve, and frequently update survey questions with new issues that emerge from our research and observations.

The November Trends Tracker comprises 1,086 respondents who represent a general sample of the U.S. public and who answered questions on Nov. 5 and 6. Blueshift utilized Census data to balance respondents by gender and age so that the sample aligns with the U.S. population.

 

Location of Topics

  1. Athletic shoes
  2. Fast-food/quick-serve restaurants
  3. Wearable tech/Fitbit/Apple Watch
  4. Streaming music services
  5. $200 to $700 handbag market
  6. Pay-TV/OTT/cord cutting
  7. Residential solar adoption
  8. Personal account hacks/national cybersecurity
  9. Gaming
  10. Social media ads
  11. Tobacco/e-cigarettes
  12. Legalization of marijuana
  13. Vaccinating children

 

Topics

1) Skechers’ strong athletic shoe growth continues.

Skechers’ growth in the athletic shoe market remains impressive. Expected purchases of Skechers in the next six months are up 18.3% compared with last quarter, second only to Adidas’ 20.2% increase. Both brands are gaining traction in all age groups. 18- to 44-year-olds prefers Adidas to Skechers, while respondents 45 or older prefer Skechers.

Nike remains the most sought-after shoe brand, with expected purchases up 15.1% from last quarter, boosting its lead over all competitors. New Balance, the No. 2 brand that respondents plan to buy, decreased by 3.2% quarter to quarter because 18- to 29-year-olds and 45- to 59-year-olds now are less likely to purchase its shoes. The number of respondents planning to purchase Under Armour Inc. (UA) shoes in the next six months was stable quarter to quarter, but the brand is gaining interest among 18- to 29-year-olds.

 

Which brand of athletic shoes do you plan to buy in the next six months? Select all that apply.

  • 29.8% plan to buy Nike shoes in the next six months, a 15.1% increase quarter to quarter.
    • All age groups, except 45- to 59-year-olds, are more likely to buy Nike shoes compared with last quarter. The likelihood increased the most among 30- to 44-year-olds, followed by 18- to 29-year-olds.
  • 18.1% plan to buy New Balance shoes in the next six months, a 3.2% decrease quarter to quarter.
    • 18- to 29-year-olds and 45- to 59-year-olds are less likely to buy New Balance shoes, but those 60 or older are more likely to purchase the shoes compared with last quarter.
  • 11% plan to buy Skechers in the next six months, an 18.3% increase quarter to quarter.
    • All age groups are more likely to buy Skechers shoes quarter to quarter.
  • 10.7% plan to buy Adidas shoes in the next six months, a 20.2% increase quarter to quarter.
    • All age groups are more likely to buy Adidas shoes quarter to quarter. 18- to 29-year-olds are the most likely to purchase Adidas shoes while those older than 60 are the least likely.
  • 8.6% plan to buy Asics Corp. (TYO:7936) shoes in the next six months, a 10.3% increase quarter to quarter.
  • 4.5% plan to buy Under Armour shoes in the next six months, the same quarter to quarter.
    • 18- to 29-year-olds are more likely to buy Under Armour shoes, but 30- to 59-year-olds are less likely.

 

 

2) McDonald’s image continues to improve among respondents one month after its nationwide all-day breakfast rollout. Nearly 50% of all respondents ate at a McDonald’s in the past month. The company has seen a significant increase in traffic from the previous quarter.

The number of respondents eating at McDonald’s grew 12.4% quarter to quarter, and 18- to 29-year-olds now are the most likely to have eaten at McDonald’s in the past month.

For the first time since we started asking this question in August, more respondents now find McDonald’s to be better than others or to be the best fast-food/quick-serve restaurant, than those who find McDonald’s to be worse than others or to be the worst fast-food/quick-serve restaurant.

Respondents ordering off McDonald’s all-day breakfast menu at a non-breakfast time and who plan to do so daily doubled in number compared with last month. Overall, those eating breakfast at a non-breakfast time who plan to do it again grew 47% compared with last month, led by younger respondents. Those who have not and will not remained steady in number.

Other traditional fast-food/quick-serve restaurants such as Taco Bell (up 14.8%), Burger King (up 11.9%) and Wendy’s (up 5.1%) all saw gains quarter to quarter, while healthier options Chipotle (down 14.8%) and Subway (down 4%) lost customers. Panera Bread Co. (PNRA) was a bright spot on the healthier side of the industry, posting an increase of 4% in respondents visiting its stores, thanks to more patronage from 18- to 29-year-olds. Chipotle’s decline can be related to the beginning of the E.coli breakout in Washington and Oregon at the beginning of the month, but our numbers do not reflect the current state of the outbreak that more recently spread to California, Ohio, New York and Minnesota.

 

Which fast-food/quick-serve restaurants have you eaten at in the past month? Select all that apply.

  • 47.2% have eaten at McDonald’s in the past month, a 12.4% increase quarter to quarter.
    • All age groups ate at McDonald’s more often quarter to quarter.
    • 18- to 29-year olds ate at McDonald’s the most often in the past month.
  • 31.1% ate at Subway in the past month, a 4% decrease quarter to quarter.
    • 30- to 59-year-olds ate at Subway less often quarter to quarter.
  • 27.4% ate at Burger King in the past month, a 22.3% increase quarter to quarter.
    • All age groups, led by 30- to 44-year-olds, ate at Burger King more often quarter to quarter.
  • 26.9% ate at Taco Bell in the past month, a 5.1% increase quarter to quarter.
    • 18- to 29-year-olds and 45- to 59-year-olds have eaten at Taco Bell more often quarter to quarter.
  • 26.4% ate at Wendy’s in the past month, an 11.9% increase quarter to quarter.
    • All age groups, except 45- to 59-year olds and led by 18- to 29-year-olds, ate at Wendy’s more often.
  • 18.1% ate at Panera in the past month, a 4% increase quarter to quarter.
    • 18- to 29-year-olds were the only age group to have eaten at Panera more often quarter to quarter.
  • 15.6% ate at Chipotle in the past month, a 14.8% decrease quarter to quarter.
    • All age groups ate at Chipotle less often quarter to quarter.
  • 11.6% have not eaten at any fast-food/quick-serve restaurants in the past month, a 19.4% decrease.

 

How does McDonald’s compare to all other fast-food/quick-serve restaurants?

  • 48.1% find McDonald’s to be on par with other fast-food/quick-serve restaurants, a 10.8% increase since August.
  • 16.9% consider McDonald’s to be better than others or to be the best, a 28% increase.
    • All age groups increased in the number of respondents who find McDonald’s to be better than others or to be the best fast-food/quick-serve restaurant compared with the previous quarter.
  • 15.8% find McDonald’s to be worse than others or to be the worst, a 16.8% decrease.
    • All age groups decreased in the number of respondents who find McDonald’s to be worse than others or to be the worst fast-food/quick-serve restaurant compared with the previous quarter, except respondents 60 or older. 18- to 29-year-olds are the most likely to find McDonald’s to be worse than others.
  • 19.2% do not eat at McDonald’s, a 21.3% decrease quarter to quarter.
    • 45- to 59-year-olds were the only age group to have more respondents who do not eat at McDonald’s compared with the previous quarter. Older respondents are the most likely to not eat at McDonald’s.
    • All household income levels, except those making $150,000 or more, have more respondents who eat at McDonald’s compared with the previous quarter.

 

Have you ordered off McDonald’s all-day breakfast menu during a non-breakfast time?

  • 4.8% have ordered off of the all-day breakfast menu during a non-breakfast time and plan to do so daily, a 108.7% increase compared with the previous month.
  • 24.1% have ordered off of the all-day breakfast menu at McDonald’s during a non-breakfast time and would do it again, a 47% increase compared with the previous month.
    • All age groups have ordered off the all-day breakfast menu more during a non-breakfast time and would do it again compared with October.
    • Younger respondents are the most likely to have ordered off the all-day breakfast menu during a non-breakfast time and would do it again.
  • 2.4% have ordered off of the all-day breakfast menu at McDonald’s during a non-breakfast time but would not do it again, a 20% increase compared with the previous month.
    • 18- to 29-year-olds were the most likely to order off of the all-day breakfast menu during a non-breakfast time and not do it again. Twice as many 30- to 44-year-olds are likely to do this as in October.
  • 33.7% have not ordered off of the all-day breakfast menu during a non-breakfast time but plan to do so, a 13.8% decrease compared with the previous month.
    • All age groups have fewer respondents who have not yet ordered off the all-day breakfast menu during a non-breakfast time but who plan to do so compared with the previous month.
    • Respondents 60 or older and 45- to 59-year-olds have the highest percentage in this category.
  • 33.8% have not ordered off of the all-day breakfast menu during a non-breakfast time and do not plan to do so, a 0.9% decrease compared with the previous month.
    • 18- to 44-year-olds have more respondents than in October who will not order off of the all-day breakfast menu during a non-breakfast time and have no plans to do so.

 

 

3) Purchases of Apple Watch and Fitbit grow 0.5 percentage points quarter to quarter, but almost four times as many Fitbits are in the hands of respondents.

Fitbit continues to lead Apple Watch in intent to purchase, and both companies saw the same 0.5 percentage-point quarterly increase in customers who own the respective devices. 7.1% of respondents are very or extremely likely to purchase a Fitbit in the next three months, up 91.9% or 3.4 percentage-points—compared with 5.4% for Apple Watch, up 145.5% or 3.2 percentage-points. Likewise, 33.6% of respondents are likely to purchase a Fitbit in the next three months, compared with 22.6% for Apple Watch. Respondents with a Fitbit outnumber those with an Apple Watch 4:1. 59.3% of respondents are not at all likely to purchase a Fitbit in the next three months, compared with 75.6% for Apple Watch.

The number of respondents who already have a wearable tech device more than tripled compared with a year ago, while those likely to adopt the technology increased 47.8% year to year.

Apple is developing the second generation of Apple Watches, with a tentative release date in June 2016.

 

How likely are you to adopt wearable technology in the next three months?

  • 9.6% already have adopted wearable technology, a 231% increase compared with a year ago.
    • All age groups, led by 30- to 44-year-olds, have increased their wearable tech adoption.
  • 42.7% are likely to adopt wearable tech in the next three months, a 47.8% increase year to year.
    • 18- to 29-year-olds are the most likely to adopt wearable tech, followed by 30- to 44-year-olds; likelihood of adoption increased year to year for all age groups.

 

How likely are you to buy an Apple Watch in the next three months?

  • 5.4% are very or extremely likely to buy an Apple Watch in the next three months, up 145.5% or 3.2 percentage-points from last quarter.
    • Younger respondents and/or those with household incomes above $150,000 are the most very or extremely likely to adopt an Apple Watch in the next three months.
  • 1.8% already have an Apple Watch, a 38.5% or 0.5 percentage-point increase compared with last quarter.
    • 18- to 29-year-olds and/or those with household incomes of $100,000 to $149,999 are the most likely already to have an Apple Watch.
  • 75.6% are not at all likely to buy an Apple Watch in the next three months, an 11.8% decrease.

 

How likely are you to buy a Fitbit in the next three months?

  • 7.1% are very or extremely likely to buy a Fitbit in the next three months, a 91.9% or 3.4 percentage-point increase compared with last quarter.
    • Younger respondents and/or those with household income of $50,000 to $99,999 are the most very or extremely likely to purchase a Fitbit in the next three months.
  • 7.1% of respondents already have a Fitbit, a 7.6% or 0.5 percentage-point increase compared with last quarter.
    • 45- to 59-year-olds and/or with higher-income households are the most likely already to have a Fitbit.
  • 59.3% are not at all likely to buy a Fitbit in the next three months, a 9.1% decrease compared with last quarter.

 

 

4) Apple Music overtakes free iTunes Radio service. Spotify’s premium service is slowing, while Google Play posts impressive growth over the past six months. Pandora’s free service remains king but is losing 18- to 29-year-old listeners.

Apple Music now has more users than Apple’s free iTunes Radio. Apple Music gained 49.5% of respondents using its services compared with last quarter while iTunes Radio lost 15% of its users in the same time frame. Pandora’s free service remains the most used, but its 3.8% growth compared with six months ago was significantly lower than its five closest competitors. Also, 18- to 29-year-olds are decreasing their use of the service while increasing their use of Apple Music, Spotify free and iHeartMedia Inc.’s (IHRT) iHeart Radio.

Google Play gained the most users compared with six months ago, up 103.2%. Pandora One premium grew 44.8% because of increased use from all age groups, except those 60 or above, which stayed the same, and now attracts 4.2% of respondents. YouTube is being used by 26% more respondents compared with six months ago. YouTube Red was added to our potential answers this month after it was released on Oct. 28, and already is being used by 1.8% of respondents. iHeartRadio continues to gain momentum among respondents under the age of 60, specifically 18- to 29-year-olds; the number of mentions rose 46% compared with six months ago. Spotify’s premium service took a hit this month, down 4.7%, possibly because of the rising use of Apple Music and YouTube Red.

Nearly 60% of respondents prefer to use a radio-style streaming service than a whole album or a specific song service, a 3.1% increase compared with six months ago. This trend continues to help services such as Pandora and iHeartRadio. 18- to 29-year-olds remain the top age group to listen to whole albums or specific songs, although 45- to 59-year-olds were the only age group to increase their primary use of these types of services.

 

What streaming music services do you use?

  • 40.6% use Pandora’s free service, a 3.8% increase compared with six months ago.
    • 18- to 29-year-olds are the only age group to decrease their use of Pandora’s free service, but still are the leading user group of this option.
  • 39.6% use YouTube, a 26% increase compared with six months ago.
  • 16.5% use iHeartRadio, a 46% increase compared with six months ago.
    • Respondents younger than 60 are increasing their use of iHeartRadio; 30- to 60-year-olds are primary users.
    • The number of 18- to 29-year-olds using iHeartRadio rose 80.2% compared with six months ago.
  • 14.9% use Spotify’s free service, an 18.3% increase compared with six months ago.
    • All age groups except 45- to 59-year-olds are increasing their use of Spotify’s free service.
    • 18- to 29-year-olds are the primary users.
  • 13.9% use Apple Music, a 49.5% increase compared with last quarter.
    • All age groups are increasing their use of Apple Music.
    • 18- to 29-year-olds are the primary users.
  • 12.6% use Google Play, a 103.2% increase compared with six months ago.
  • 10.8% use iTunes Radio for free, a 15% decrease compared with six months ago.
    • All age groups except 45- to 59-year-olds are decreasing their use of iTunes Radio.
  • 4.2% use Pandora One premium, a 44.8% increase compared with six months ago.
    • 45- to 59-year-olds are the most likely to use Pandora One premium, edging out 30- to 44-year-olds by 0.1 percentage points. All age groups increased their use of the service, except for those 60 or older, for whom use remained flat compared with six months ago.
  • 4.1% use Spotify premium, a 4.7% decrease compared with six months ago.
    • 18- to 44-year-olds decreased their use of Spotify premium; 18- to 29-year-olds remain the primary users.
  • 1.8% use YouTube Red.

 

How do you primarily stream music?

  • 59.3% primarily consume radio-style streamed music, a 3.1% increase compared with six months ago.
  • 45- to 59-year-olds are the only age group to listen to more whole albums or specific songs via streaming compared with six months ago, but 18- to 29-year-olds remain the most likely to prefer this type of service.

 

 

5) Michael Kors is gaining on Coach in the $200 to $700 handbag market.

Although respondents still consider Coach the trendiest handbags in this price range, Kors has seen a 16.9% increase in the number of respondents deeming it the trendiest compared with six months ago, while Coach grew 7.3%. Likewise, Coach is most likely to be respondents’ next purchase, but intent to purchase Kors grew 78.3%, more than double Coach’s 36.1% increase. Coach saw heightened interest among 18- to 29-year-olds.

Dooney & Bourke Inc. (17.1%) and Kate Spade & Co. (KATE, 13.3%) also saw more growth in trendiness than Coach. Each age group found Coach the trendiest brand, followed by Michael Kors, Kate Spade, and Dooney & Bourke. 18- to 29-year-olds were more likely than other age groups to find Michael Kors, Kate Spade and Dooney & Bourke trendy.

Potential purchases of Kate Spade grew 46.5%, while likelihood of purchasing Dooney & Bourke decreased 27% compared with six months ago.

 

Which handbag brand do you consider the most trendy in the $200 to $700 price range?

  • 14.8% consider Coach the trendiest handbag brand for $200 to $700, a 7.3% increase from six months ago.
    • 30- to 44-year-olds now are the primary age group to find Coach handbags the trendiest; they are joined by respondents ages 18 to 29 and 60 or older in finding Coach to be trendier than six months ago.
    • 4% of 18- to 29-year-olds consider Coach the trendiest handbag brand for $200 to $700, a 57% increase compared with six months ago.
  • 9% consider Michael Kors the trendiest brand for $200 to $700, a 16.9% increase compared with six months ago.
    • 18- to 29-year-olds are the primary respondents to find Michael Kors handbags the trendiest, but all age groups, except 30- to 44-year-olds for whom responses were flat, found the brand to be trendier compared with six months ago.
  • 5.1% consider Kate Spade the trendiest brand for $200 to $700, a 13.3% increase compared with six months ago.
    • 18- to 29-year-olds and respondents 60 or older find Kate Spade to be trendier than six months ago.
  • 4.1% consider Dooney & Bourke the trendiest brand for $200 to $700, a 17.1% increase from six months ago.
    • 18- to 29-year-olds were the only age group to now find Dooney & Bourke trendier.
  • 51.8% of respondents do not buy handbags, a 6.2% decrease compared with six months ago.

 

Which handbag brand in the $200 to $700 price range will you most likely purchase next?

  • 21.5% most likely will purchase a Coach handbag next, a 36.1% increase compared with six months ago.
    • 30- to 44-year-olds are the most likely to purchase a Coach handbag. All age groups are more likely to purchase a Coach handbag compared with six months ago.
  • 12.3% said they most likely will purchase a Michael Kors handbag next, a 78.3% increase from six months ago.
    • 18- to 29-year-olds are the most likely to purchase a Michael Kors handbag. All age groups are more likely to make a Kors purchase compared with six months ago.
  • 4.8% will most likely purchase a Kate Spade handbag next, a 45.5% increase compared with six months ago.
    • 30- to 44- year olds are the most likely to purchase a Kate Spade handbag. 45- to 59-year olds were the only age group less likely to purchase a Kate Spade handbag compared with six months ago.
  • 4.6% will most likely purchase a Dooney & Bourke handbag next, a 27% decrease compared with six months ago.
    • Respondents at least 60 or 18 to 29 years old are more likely to purchase a Dooney & Bourke handbag compared with six months ago, but the other age groups are less likely to do so.

 

 

6) Pay-TV subscriptions are climbing and cord-nevers are declining, though cord-cutters are up as use of online streaming services is on the rise. HBO’s OTT platforms have posted impressive growth.

The number of respondents with pay-TV services increased compared with six months ago, as did the number of households with an add-on service. Two-thirds of respondents now have pay-TV services, a 26.9% increase. Respondents are increasing their subscriptions to both basic pay-TV subscriptions and pay-TV subscriptions with add-on services. Those who never had a pay-TV subscription dropped 57.1% compared with six months ago, showing a decline in cord-nevers. Those who canceled their pay-TV subscription more than a month ago decreased 7.6%.

At the same time, the rate of cord-cutting grew compared with six months ago and online streaming TV services continue to flourish. The number of respondents who canceled their pay-TV subscriptions in the last month increased from 0.8% to 1.3% compared with six months ago. Also, more respondents are very or extremely likely to cancel their pay-TV subscription in the next six months, with the number rising 17.3% over the last quarter. Still, the overall group of pay-TV subscribers is less likely to cancel their subscriptions in the next six months compared with last quarter.

Although 18- to 29-year-olds are the primary age group to be very or extremely likely to cancel their pay-TV subscription in the next six months, they decreased 21.3% compared with last quarter. 30- to 59-year-olds increased the likelihood of canceling their subscriptions compared with last quarter. Respondents with household incomes of $50,000 or higher are more very or extremely likely to cancel their pay-TV subscription in the next six months compared with last quarter.

This month we added as answer options YouTube Red and Verizon Communications Inc.’s (VZ) Go90, which already has landed an agreement with the NBA for excusive content and some live games. 17.4% more respondents are using at least one of these online streaming TV services. Netflix Inc. (NFLX) remains the leader in the space and still is growing, up 7% compared with last year. Time Warner Inc.’s (TWX) HBO Now experienced the most growth in respondents using its services compared with last year, up 124% to encompass 5.6% of respondents. HBO’s other service HBO Go also experienced impressive growth compared with six months ago, up 40.9% to encompass 9.3% of respondents. Amazon.com Inc.’s (AMZN) Amazon Instant Video also is gaining interest from all age groups and saw respondents’ use increase 32.1% compared with last year. YouTube is being used more for online streaming TV services, and its Red platform, which has no ads, was used by 1.4% of respondents in its first month. Dish Network Corp.’s (DISH) Sling TV is up 120% compared with six months ago, but the service still only has 2.2% of respondents using it.

 

Do you use pay-TV in your household?

  • 75.1% have a pay-TV service, a 26.9% increase compared with six months ago.
  • Of those, 32.7% have pay-TV with add-on services, a 20.2% increase.
    • All age groups saw an increase in their subscriptions to pay-TV with add-on services from six months ago.
  • 11.5% have never had a pay-TV service, a 57.1% decrease compared with six months ago.
    • All age groups are less likely to have never had a pay-TV service compared with six months ago.
  • 12.1% canceled their pay-TV subscription more than a month ago, a 7.6% decrease compared with six months ago.
    • 30- to 59-year-olds decreased in their cancellations of pay-TV subscriptions more than a month ago compared with six months ago.
  • 1.3% of respondents canceled their pay-TV subscription in the past month, up 62.5% from six months ago.

 

How likely are you to cancel your pay-TV subscription in the next six months and to replace it with online streaming services only?

  • 39.4% of pay-TV users are likely to cancel their subscription in the next six months, a 2.7% decrease from last quarter.
  • 8.8% of pay-TV users are very or extremely likely to cancel their pay-TV subscriptions in the next six months, a 17.3% increase compared with last quarter.
    • 18- to 29- year olds still are the primary age group to be very or extremely likely to cancel their pay-TV subscriptions in the next six months, but they have decreased 21.3% compared with last quarter. 30- to 59-year-olds increased their likelihood of canceling compared with last quarter.
    • Respondents with household incomes of $50,000 or higher increased in being very or extremely likely to cancel their pay-TV subscription in the next six months compared with last quarter.

 

Which online streaming TV services do you use?

  • 49.1% use Netflix, a 7% increase compared with last year.
    • Netflix is used the most by 18- to 29-year-olds, but all age groups posted increases in Netflix subscriptions year to year.
  • 36.4% use YouTube, a 23.8% increase compared with last year.
  • 22.2% use Amazon Instant Video, a 32.1% increase compared with last year.
    • All age groups, led by 30- to 44-year-olds, increased their adoption of Amazon Instant Video.
  • 13.1% of respondents use Hulu, a 26% increase compared with last year.
    • All age groups except 18- to 29-year-olds increased their adoption of Hulu compared with last year.
  • 9.3% of respondents use HBO Go, a 40.9% increase compared with last year.
    • 30- to 44-year-olds increased their adoption of HBO Go the most compared with last year, followed by 45- to 59-year-olds. The other two age groups decreased their use of the service.
  • 9.2% of respondents use Hulu Plus, a 15% increase compared with last year.
    • All age groups except those 60 or older increased their adoption of Hulu Plus. 18- to 29-year-olds still are the primary users.
  • 5.6% of respondents use HBO Now, a 124% increase compared with six months ago.
    • All age groups, now led by 30- to 44-year-olds, increased their adoption of HBO Now.
  • 5.6% of respondents us Google Play, a 64.7% increase compared with last year.
    • 18- to 59-year-olds increased their adoption of Google Play compared with last year.
  • 2.2% of respondents use Sling TV, a 120% increase compared with six months ago.
    • All age groups increase their adoption compared with six months ago.
  • 28.4% do not use any online streaming TV services, a 17.4% decrease compared with last year.
    • Those making $24,999 or less were the only income level to have more respondents without any online streaming TV services compared with last year.

 

 

7) Solar adoption doubles year to year, but those likely to adopt have decreased slightly.

Those who have solar panels in their home doubled compared with a year ago, but only represent 4.2% of respondents. All age groups are increasing their adoption of the power source, led by those age 60 or older. All household income levels are increasing their adoption of solar as well, led by those with higher incomes. Those likely to adopt solar in the next six months decreased 12.4% year to year. 18- to 29-year-olds are the top age group to be likely to adopt solar in the next six months and comprise the sole age group to become more likely to do so compared with last year.

The United States is becoming more community-oriented in terms of installing solar panels and now will allow communities to pool funding to install and share solar power systems. This may be why respondents are less likely overall to install solar power in their homes. Incentives for installing residential solar systems, such as the 30% tax credit, are set to drop to 10% by the end of 2016. This is predicted to diminish the number of consumers purchasing solar and could affect companies like SolarCity Corp. (SCTY).

 

How likely are you to adopt solar power for your home during the next six months?

  • 4.2% already have solar panels for their homes, a 110% increase compared with a year ago.
    • Respondents 60 or older are the top adopters of solar power, but all age groups increased their adoption.
    • Adoption is greatest among higher-income households, but all income levels have increased their adoption.
  • 24.1% are likely to adopt solar panels for their homes in the next six months, a 12.4% decrease year to year.
    • 18- to 29-year-olds are the most likely to adopt solar panels in the next six months. They are the only age group to be more likely to adopt solar panels compared with last year.
    • Respondents making $25,000 to $49,999 or $100,000 to $149,999 are the only to income levels to increase their likelihood of adopting solar power compared with last year.

 

 

8) Respondents are less concerned about personal accounts or devices being hacked. National cybersecurity also is less of a concern compared with six months ago.

Respondents are less concerned about their personal accounts or devices being hacked compared with six months ago. 40% are very or extremely concerned, but the number represents an 18.7% decrease from six months ago. Also, those not at all concerned grew by 51.5%. All age groups and income levels are less concerned than six months ago.

Respondents also are less concerned about national cybersecurity. 49.5% are very or extremely concerned about national cybersecurity, but this number decreased 14.2% compared with six months ago. All age groups and all income levels are less concerned about the issue. Respondents who are not at all concerned grew 26.3% compared with six months ago. Younger respondents are most likely to be not at all concerned about national cybersecurity, but 18- to 29-year-olds were the only age group to see this number drop compared with six months ago. Lower-income households are the most likely to be not at all concerned with national cybersecurity.

 

How concerned are you that your personal accounts or devices could be hacked?

  • 40% are very or extremely concerned about their personal accounts or devices being hacked, an 18.7% decrease compared with six months ago.
    • All age groups are less concerned than six months ago about their personal accounts or devices being hacked, but 45- to 59-year-olds remain the most concerned.
    • All income levels are less concerned about being hacked compared with six months ago.
  • 10.3% are not at all concerned about their personal accounts or devices being hacked, up 51.5%.
    • 18- to 29-year-olds remain the least concerned about being hacked. 45- to 59-year-olds were the only age group to become more concerned compared with six months ago.
    • Households with incomes of $150,000 or more were the only ones to become more concerned about their personal accounts or devices being hacked compared with six months ago.

 

How would you describe your level of concern about national cybersecurity?

  • 49.5% are very or extremely concerned about national cybersecurity, down 14.2% compared with six months ago.
    • Older respondents remain the most concerned about national cybersecurity, but all age groups have become less concerned than six months ago.
    • All income levels have become less concerned compared with six months ago. Those with incomes of $50,000 to $99,999 or at least $150,000 are the most concerned about national cybersecurity.
  • 7.2% of respondents are not at all concerned about national cybersecurity, a 26.3% increase from six months ago.
    • Younger respondents remain the least concerned about national cybersecurity, but 18- to 29-year-olds were the only age group to become more concerned compared with six months ago.
    • Lower-income households are the least concerned about national cybersecurity.

 

 

9) Console and smartphone gaming is both on the rise and now tied for the most used methods. Console gaming’s growth in the last year was twice that for smartphones. Console gamers are starting to shift away from physical discs.

The same percentages of respondents, 16.6%, are playing most video games through consoles and on smartphones. Console gaming grew the most year to year, up 43.1%. Smartphone gaming grew 22.1%.

All age groups and all income levels, except those making $150,000 or more, increased their use of consoles compared with a year ago. 18- to 29-year-olds remain the dominant group to use consoles for gaming. Smartphone gaming is increasing among all age groups and household income levels compared with last year. Specifically, those making $0 and $24,999 are increasingly using their smartphones for gaming. Tablet gaming also grew slightly over this time frame, up 4.2%. Computer gaming was the only form of gaming to decrease compared with a year ago, down 17.3%. Console gaming’s increased use can be related to rising sales of Sony Corp.’s (TYO:6758) PlayStation 4 and Microsoft Corp.’s (MSFT) Xbox One, which recently became backwards-compatible with Xbox 360 games.

Overall, respondents prefer digital downloads to physical discs. Console gamers still prefer physical discs to digital downloads, but this preference has decreased 8% compared with last year. This could affect GameStop Corp. (GME) even though the company is modernizing its approach and including a digital store.

 

How do you play most of your video games?

  • 16.6% play most video games through a console, a 43.1% increase compared with a year ago.
    • All age groups, still led by 18- to 29-year-olds, increased their use of consoles year to year.
    • Households with incomes of $150,000 or higher reported a decrease in console use, but all other income levels increased their use of consoles. Lower-income households remain the most likely to use consoles.
  • 16.6% play most video games through a smartphone, a 22.1% increase compared with a year ago.
    • Smartphone gaming rose among all age groups, but still is led by those ages 30 to 44.
    • Smartphone gaming is up for all household income levels. Those making $0 to $24,999 saw the greatest year-to-year increase in smartphone gaming.
  • 13.4% play most video games through a computer, a 17.3% decrease compared with a year ago.
  • 10% play most video games through a tablet, a 4.2% increase compared with a year ago.
    • Tablet gaming rose among all age groups except 45- to 59-year-olds year to year.

 

How do you prefer to purchase most of your video games?

  • Overall, 60.8% of gamers prefer digital downloads to physical discs, up 4.9% from the previous quarter.
    • Older respondents increased their preference of digital downloads compared with the previous quarter, but younger respondents reported less preference for digital downloads over the same timeframe.
  • 73.5% of console gamers prefer physical discs to digital downloads, an 8% decrease compared with the previous quarter (filtered by console gamers).

 

 

10) Respondents’ purchases through social media ads are rising. They have increased their utilization of Facebook, Pinterest and Instagram for purchases, but decreased their use of Twitter.

31% more respondents are making purchases through social media ads compared with six months ago because of increased purchases from all age groups, particularly 18- to 29-year-olds, and from all income levels.

Purchases through ads grew more for Facebook Inc.’s (FB) Instagram than any other social media outlets, up 300% compared with six months ago, but only 1.2% of our respondents have made purchases through its platform. Facebook remains the top social media outlet for ad purchases, up almost 25% compared with six months ago. Purchases through Pinterest ads grew 80% over this time and now represent 2.7% of responses. On the other end of the spectrum, purchases through Twitter Inc. (TWTR) ads decreased 28.6%, highlighting the concerns reported in Blueshift’s Oct. 7 Twitter report.

We are seeing increased spending on items of $40 or less, the most common purchases, as well as on products that are $100 or more. Respondents are becoming more comfortable making bigger purchases through social media ads, which could open up the door for other retailers to push more expensive products through social media outlets, thus increasing their spending on sites like Facebook, Facebook’s Instagram and Pinterest.

 

Have you bought any products through a social media ad?

  • 17.1% have bought a product through a social media ad, a 31% increase compared with six months ago.
    • 18- to 29–year-olds are the most likely to buy a product through a social media ad.
    • All age groups increased their purchases through social media ads compared with six months ago.
    • All income levels are buying more products through social media ads compared with six months ago.
  • 11.2% have bought a product through a Facebook ad, a 24.4% increase compared with six months ago.
  • 2.7% have bought a product through a Pinterest ad, an 80% increase compared with six months ago.
  • 1.2% have bought a product through an Instagram ad, a 300% increase compared with six months ago.
  • 0.5% have bought a product through a Twitter ad, a 28.6% decrease compared with six months ago.

 

How much did you spend on the product you bought through the social media ad?

  • 71.5% spent $40 or less on a product bought through a social media ad, up 13.3% compared with six months ago.
  • 8% spent $100 or more on a product brought through a social media ad, a 37.9% increase.

 

 

11) Slightly more respondents smoke tobacco compared with last year. E-cigarette and manufactured cigarette use is on the rise.

Slightly more respondents smoke compared with last year. Those who do smoke are increasing their use of both manufactured cigarettes and e-cigarettes, up 6.4% and 56.3%, respectively. E-cigarette use in particular is rising among 18- to 29-year-olds and 45- to 59-year-olds, as well as households with incomes of $99,999 or less. 18- to 29-year-olds saw an increase the percentage of smokers in its age group compared with last year, but 30- to 44-year-olds are still the top group of individuals who smoke. Respondents with household incomes below $49,999 are more likely to smoke compared with last year, but those with incomes of $50,000 or more are less likely to smoke tobacco over that time.

The budding vaping industry could be cut back if proposed FDA rules are passed. The cost to businesses could range from $2 million to $10 million for each item, putting many small businesses out of business and opening the door for larger corporations to dominate the industry.

 

How do you smoke most of your tobacco?

  • 80.7% do not smoke tobacco, a 0.3% decrease year to year.
  • 19.3% smoke tobacco, a 1.1% increase compared with a year ago.
    • 18- to 29-year-olds were the only age group to post an increase in smoking compared with a year ago, while 30- to 44-year-olds remain the most likely to smoke tobacco.
    • Respondents with household incomes of $49,999 or less have increased the amount they smoke and remain the primary users of tobacco.
  • 59.2% of tobacco users choose manufactured cigarettes, a 6.4% increase year to year.
  • 2.5% use e-cigarettes or vaporizers, a 56.3% increase compared with a year ago.
    • 13% of tobacco users specifically choose e-cigarettes or vaporizers, a 54.8% increase.
    • 18- to 29-year-olds use e-cigarettes the most out of all the age groups, up 75% compared with a year ago. 45- to 59-year-olds also increased their use of e-cigarettes.
    • Lower-income households, particularly $25,000 to $49,999, remain the most likely to use e-cigarettes.

 

 

12) Support for marijuana legalization drops slightly. Recreational marijuana use is down from six months ago, but medical use is up.

Support for marijuana legalization slipped compared with last year. Support for legalization decreased 2.2% compared with last year, but still settles around 40% of respondents. Slightly more respondents compared with last year are in favor of keeping marijuana illegal. 17.7% of respondents now want to keep marijuana illegal, a 35.1% increase. 18- to 29-year-olds and/or those with incomes of $25,000 to $49,999 were the only two groups to go against this trend and increase their support for legalization.

This change in support and the rise in respondents wanting to keep marijuana illegal can be observed in Ohio where voters recently rejected “Issue 3.” A passage would have opened up the state to legalized recreational and medical marijuana. Some who supported legalization were against the law as it granted control to a few select businesses.

Respondents who use marijuana recreationally decreased 2.6% compared with six months ago, based on a drop in use among 18- to 29-year-olds and/or those making $24,999 maximum or least $150,000. Those who use marijuana for medical purposes, on the other hand, rose 29.4% compared with six months ago. Those who have used marijuana in the past but currently do not dropped in number as well compared with six months ago.

 

What should the law be regarding marijuana?

  • 40.1% support complete legalization of marijuana, a 2.2% decrease compared with a year ago.
    • 18- to 29-year-olds were the only age group to increase their support for legalization.
    • Respondents making $25,000 to $49,000 were the only income level to increase their support.
  • 17.7% want to keep marijuana illegal, a 35.1% increase compared with a year ago.

 

Do you smoke, vaporize or ingest marijuana? Your answers are kept strictly confidential.

  • 16% currently do not use marijuana but have in the past, a 6.4% decrease from May.
    • Those 60 or older were the only age group to have more respondents than in our May report who had used marijuana in the past but do not currently use it.
    • Those making $25,000 to $49,999 or $100,000 to $149,999 were the two income levels that had more respondents since May who had used marijuana in the past but do not currently use it.
  • 7.5% currently use marijuana, a 2.6% decrease from May.
    • 18- to 29-year-olds were the only age group to have fewer respondents use marijuana than in May.
    • Respondents making $24,999 maximum or at least $150,000 were the two income levels to decrease their use of marijuana compared with May.
  • 2.2% currently use marijuana for medical purposes, a 29.4% increase from May.

 

 

13) Anti-vaccinators rise 22.2% compared with last year, still comprising only 8.8% of respondents.

A growing number of respondents believe children should not be vaccinated. Those who believe this grew 22.2% compared with last year, based on rising rates in all age groups except 45- to 59-year-olds. 18- to 29-year-olds remain the top age group to believe children should not be vaccinated.

Pennsylvania is one state taking the diminishing use of vaccinations into its own hands: The state is contemplating giving parent of school children five days from the start of the school year to fill the requirement for vaccinations, down from the current eight months. The proposal also seeks to add more required vaccinations.

 

Should children be vaccinated?

  • 8.8% believe children should not be vaccinated, a 22.2% increase year to year.
    • All age groups, except 45- to 59-year-olds and yet led by 18- to 29-year-olds, are becoming more opposed.

 

 


Report analysis by Mason Rudy.