Is McDonald’s seeing sales declines in its all-day breakfast and overall business?
Report Available: April 7, 2016
Blueshift’s initial research shows McDonald’s all-day breakfast and overall sales beginning to slide to begin the year. In a proprietary consumer survey in February, Blueshift found respondents increasingly less likely to order from the all-day breakfast menu during non-breakfast times, and saw an overall drop in the number of respondents frequenting MCD in Jan. and Feb. compared to the growth trend seen from July through December. At the same time, MCD reported strong earnings on the back of its successful all-day breakfast campaign, is testing an expanded all-day breakfast menu, and continues to push the envelope with new promotions like the McPick 2.
- Blueshift’s February Consumer Survey Trends Tracker showed MCD off to a slow start in 2016. Visits have declined, all-day breakfast orders have slowed, and fewer respondents viewed McDonald’s as on par with its peers. From July (39.5% of ~1,000 respondents eating at MCD in the past month) to December (48.4%), the Trends Tracker showed MCD with a steady climb of respondents eating at its establishments. But January (43.1%) and February (42.3%) showed a precipitous drop in those numbers.
- As for the all-day breakfast menu, enthusiasm appears to be waning several months after the nationwide launch. 17% more respondents compared to November have not ordered off the all-day breakfast menu at non-breakfast times and do not plan to do so. 25% fewer respondents compared to November that have not yet ordered off the all-day breakfast menu at non-breakfast times plan to do so. And the number of those who will again order from the all-day breakfast menu at non-breakfast times daily (down 50%) or weekly (down 4.5%) has declined from November, while those who will do it again monthly (up 31.7%) or annually (up 79.2%) have increased.
- MCD is a Wall Street darling at the moment, coming off a strong Q4 earnings report. MCD reported a same-store U.S. sales increase of 5.7% in Q4 as a result of its all-day breakfast launch in Oct., beating analyst expectations. Global same-store-sales were up 5%, also ahead of expectations. Q4 profit was up 10% from the prior year. And the company said it expects positive top-line momentum in all segments in 2016, causing one analyst to upgrade its rating from “hold” to “buy”, while the rest reiterated their positive leanings.
- MCD’s McPick 2 for $2 menu was expanded at the end of February to a premium variation that now includes items such as the Big Mac and Quarter Pounder for a 2-for-$5 offering, and expectations are high because of the value for the price. Additionally, Southern California MCDs are introducing McCafe Smoothies and Fruit ‘N Yogurt Parfaits made with Chobani Greek Yogurt for the all-day menu, bringing some name recognition and a strong partnership sure to attract more customers. What’s more, MCD is testing a new addition to its all-day breakfast, adding popular McGriddles to the menu at its restaurants in Tulsa, OK and has been serving Sausage McGriddle sandwiches in its Kansas City market since January.
- Blueshift’s Oct. 2, 2015, report showed MCD’s all-day breakfast rollout started strong. Enthusiasm was high among customers, staff and franchisees. Two store sources expected a sales increase of low to mid-single digits because of the all-day breakfast, while two others believed it would exceed expectations based on early indications. Overall, sales had risen for seven MCD store sources; two said the increase was year to year while five said growth was due to initiatives started in June and July
Is momentum for MCD’s all-day breakfast slowing? Are the results of Blueshift’s Consumer Survey a harbinger of things to come for MCD? Or is MCD in position for 2016 to further its comeback campaign with all-day breakfast among the driving forces? To answer these questions and more, Blueshift will gather data and issue a market research report from independent sources in the following areas: Franchise owners, Supply chain, Stores, and Industry specialists.
Companies: McDonald’s Corp. (MCD), Restaurant Brands International (QSR), Wendy’s Co. (WEN), Dunkin Brands Group (DNKN), Jack in the Box (JACK)
Research Begins: March 14, 2016