Company: Deckers (DECK)

Blueshift’s initial research indicates possible red flags for UGG heading into the fall and winter seasons, while the company counters with an aggressive push to attract male customers.

1. Blueshift’s April DECK report showed concerns for UGG sales leading into the fall/winter 2012, including two manufacturer sources who noted that client orders for fall/winter 2012 had fallen as much as 35%. Additionally, six of 11 retail sources said UGG sales decreased as much as 50% year to year, due in part to the unseasonably warm winter. Concerns are now whether this has led to a possible inventory surplus as the company hopes for a cold winter to clear excess inventory in 2013.
2. UGG, which has lacked brand awareness with men, will be unveiling a new blend of television, digital, print, and outdoor ads this September targeted directly at male customers, in hopes of changing its perception of being a female-only brand.
3. According to Deckers’ CEO, UGG experienced positive momentum during Nordstrom’s recent anniversary sale, which typically introduces fall/winter styles before advertised release dates, giving hope for on-trend designs and strong sales for the fall.

To gain insight on the fall and winter outlook for UGG, Blueshift will gather data and issue a market research report from sources in the following areas: retailers, supply chain, manufacturers, and customers.